Only six months ago, the Canadian government joined with every industrialised nation except the US in signing up to the protocol, including detailed provisions covering carbon credits. But it has since come under heavy pressure from its energy industry not to ratify the deal in parliament.

Canada set to reject Kyoto protocol
13:10 10 May 02 NewScientist.com news service

Canada seems set to join the US in reneging on the Kyoto protocol on climate change - unless it is granted key concessions that the European Union adamantly opposes.

Meeting EU ministers in Madrid on Thursday, Canadian prime minister Jean Chretien said he was "not in a position to ratify until some elements are clarified". These elements are believed to be Canada's demand to gain credits under the protocol for exporting natural gas and hydroelectric power to the US.

Canada claims that the gas will replace coal in US power stations. Because burning gas produces less carbon dioxide than burning coal, that would reduce the US's contribution to global warming, it argues.

Only six months ago, the Canadian government joined with every industrialised nation except the US in signing up to the protocol, including detailed provisions covering carbon credits. But it has since come under heavy pressure from its energy industry not to ratify the deal in parliament.

Controversial concession

The protocol requires Canada to cut its emissions by six per cent from 1990 to 2010 - a tall order since its emissions in 2000 were 20 per cent up. In 2001, it won a scientifically controversial concession from other signatories to allow it to count CO2 soaked up by its huge forests towards the target. That, environmentalists say, could be worth, five per cent of emissions.

The EU is adamantly opposed to further concessions. An aide to environment commissioner Margot Wallstrom told reporters: "We are totally fed up with the games the Canadians are playing." It could be brinkmanship, but Greenpeace claims Canada is looking for an excuse to pull out of the protocol.

That would not necessarily spell the end for the protocol, even if Australia, another waverer, refused to sign. To come into force, it requires the ratification of countries responsible for 55 per cent of the emissions of all industrialised nations. The EU, which will ratify in June, plus Japan, Russia, Ukraine and Poland would be enough.

But many argue that if another major industrial nation follows the US in rejecting the protocol then it could, politically speaking, be dead in the water.

Fred Pearce