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Space exploration/colonization and Chaos theory

Anonyme, Lunes, Junio 21, 2004 - 13:35

Carl Zimmerman

 
No margin for error in Space.. (an article about chaos theory).

 
Chaos theory & Space
Read my online article on Chaos theory I welcome your comments. Thanks. Carl.

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/101_fun_stuff/32939/latest/2

Subject: Chaos theory and successful innovations
PREDICTING SUCCESSFUL INNOVATION FOR SPACE EXPLORATION AND COLONIZATION

by Carl Zimmerman

"...The opportunity to create and build our own worlds from scratch..."

Imagine this dialogue between a parent and teenager in the not too distant future:

Parent: Why does your generation want to leave "mother" Earth and colonize Mars? They will have to take great risks and pay enormous costs in lives lost and material destruction if initial attempts fail.
Teenager: Colonizing Mars gives us the opportunity to create and build our own worlds from scratch. We don't have to waste our lives dealing with problems inherited from previous generations on Earth. We believe that justifies the risks and costs.
Parent: What problems?
Teenager: Ecological disasters and people conflicts--racial, ethnic, sexual and personality--to name a few. In the Mars colonies, we can't afford these problems. Survival depends on innovation and cooperation based on contribution, not personal style. For example, when an airlock problem is detected, there's no time for debate. We'll listen to the autistic airlock expert who can do nothing but fix airlocks and has a 100% history of success. We can't afford failure.

This imaginary dialogue depicts the direction that the U.S. and many other developed countries are taking today--space exploration and colonization. Currently, the main goal is to develop new technologies that will improve the quality of life on Earth, but as the dialogue suggests, the colonists may "fall in love" with living on other planets. This will especially happen if the cost of solving major problems, such as ecological disasters, on Earth becomes prohibitive. Models which predict the innovations that are likely to succeed will improve the quality of life on Earth as well as for our colonists on distant planets.

In some previous innovations, such the airplane, the consequences of early failure were limited (e.g., a biplane crashing on the side of a barn). For innovations needed for space exploration and colonization, the costs of failure would be enormous, including, for example, ecological disasters during testing on Earth and destruction of entire colonies on other planets. Predicting changing needs and their impact on populations is required to predict successful innovations.

Ideally, in order to produce a successful innovation, we must predict the essential needs of the space colonies, and identify what does and does not exist today that will meet these needs. The "what does not exist today" will tell us which innovations will have to be developed. However, nnovations based solely on "guesstimates" of future needs and technologies run a high risk of costly failure if these conflict with actual future needs. Innovations that reflect only the present state-of-the-art without any assumptions of the future will almost certainly fail. Innovations should be based on the right balance between what we assume is needed tomorrow and what we know will work today. How can this be accomplished? The following
will help: If we depict a region and its components, including the population and, for example, their possessions and architecture, after classifying them an evolutionary model would emerge, suggesting a "cast of characters" and behavior over time. To understand the system and how its future may be affected by some event(s), choice(s) and/or policy(ies), we would build a mathematical model of the system as it exists at a particular time, and describe the processes that will increase or decrease its different components.

We could apply the traditional approach of physics, that is, identify the components and the interactions operating on these, both to and from the outside world. From this, we can predict the functioning of the system at that time based on the causal relations between components, which we presume are present.

However, the predictions can be correct for as long as the taxonomy (classifications) of the system remains unchanged (Aristotle fans, please take note). The mechanical model of deterministic equations for a given time cannot produce new types of objects and variables. Its predictions will only be valid until some moment, unpredictable within the model, when there is an adaptation to innovation, and new behavior emerges. Consequently, we need models that not only predict what future needs will be, but when they will change and what change in population behavior will result.

Equilibrium does not exist in the real world

The basis of scientific understanding has traditionally been the mechanical model. In addition to focusing on causal relations between components at a particular time, it is assumed that this system has run itself to equilibrium, so that the correspondence between object and model is made through balance of variables at equilibrium. In economics, for example, equilibrium is represented by optimal utility for the actors, where consumers minimize cost of goods and services, and producers maximize profits. This approach assumes that all the actors know what they want and how to get it, and are doing what they want given the choices available. However, we know that equilibrium does not exist in the real world.

Today, system dynamics is available to replace this oversimplified static approach, which is based on unrealistic assumptions, in developing models for rational prediction of population behavior, need and innovation. These are based on the following parameters:
Values of external factors, reflecting the "environment" of the system, such as temperature, climate and soils, and expected changes in these over time. Values corresponding to population "performance" due to their internal characteristics, such as technology, and knowledge level and application, and expected changes in these over time. Change comes from within the system "If it's not in the heart, it's not in the head." (Salesmanship proverb).

"The clouded mind sees nothing." (The Shadow, a fictional character)

Since system dynamics models required for predicting successful future innovations are concerned with evolution, these must be model systems in which adaptive and structural changes can occur. The internal characteristics of the actors change endogenously, and new variables and mechanisms of interaction can appear spontaneously within the system itself, leading to a changed taxonomy.

In order to make the model work, it must be simplified. This can be accomplished with two assumptions:

1. Events occur at an average rate.
2. All individuals of a given type are identical and of an average type.

Chaos equations are better predictors of successful future innovations than bell curve equations Errors introduced by assumption #1 (above) can be corrected by probabilistic dynamics, which assumes that all individuals are identical to an average type, but that events of different probabilities occur. Consequently, probabilistic dynamics includes sequences of events that correspond to runs of good or bad "luck" and their probabilities.

Systems with nonlinear interactions between individuals eliminate the concept of a simple, constant trajectory. Evolution of the system will be described by a probability distribution that gradually changes in shape from a single modal "bell curve" (sharply peaked and centered on a mean) to spreading and splitting into a multi-modal distribution with peaks that correspond to different attractors of the dynamics (attractor=position where the dynamic system converges). These attractors could be point or cyclic, but most likely, based on previous experience, will be chaotic.

Since unpredictable runs of good or bad "luck" will occur, a precise trajectory of the system does not exist for predicting future behavior. Also, these deviations from the average rate of events means that a system can "tunnel" through apparently impassable potential barriers, and can switch between attractor basins and explore the global space of the dynamic system in a manner that the system cannot predict.

Adaptations For Space Colonization

Since the innovations for future space exploration and colonization will be dynamic systems, the relationships of the system variables will be nonlinear. Consequently, we expect chaos equations to provide very useful descriptions of relationships for mission-critical biological, ecological and economic systems. Already electronics hardware such as solid state lasers, oscilloscopes and analog computers make extensive use of chaos equations. We've only scratched the surface of their potential.

In future issues, Carl Zimmerman will expand on the promising applications of chaos theory and its advantages for future pioneers.

About The Author

Carl Zimmerman is a techno-marketing writer in the U.S. for a major global manufacturer of animal nutrition and health products. He has a B.S. degree in chemistry and an M.B.A. in marketing.

Chaos theory, Physics, Astronomy
carlzim0.tripod.com/


Asunto: 
Do US Space Colonies Exist?
Autor: 
franzjutta
Fecha: 
Mar, 2004-06-22 08:49

Carl and Bill,

In our debates on Narco News, in the Narcosphere, our copublisher, Benjamin melanchon, commented to one of my postings as follows:

"I think I can outright disprove, from my laptop, Lee's assertion of "the high probability of space colonies on the Moon, Mars and elsewhere". A lot of people with way too much time on their hands have a strong interest in the space program. Indeed, they have their own unofficial guides for where to watch shuttles take off from and when the launches occur. How could a colony be built or populated without this independent community getting very, very excited about the activity, which they would not just expose but celebrate?"
http://narcosphere.narconews.com/story/2004/6/14/131953/219

Could you both give us an authoritative comment with regard to this important issue?

Greetings,

Franz J. T. Lee.


[ ]

Asunto: 
Space communities for fun & profit
Autor: 
carlzim
Fecha: 
Mar, 2004-06-22 09:26

Franz & Bill: Those who have built Space communities (more precise word than colonies) on Moon, Mars, etc. must be highly disciplined to have kept this activity secret. This is because the required technology, especially human-made* flying saucers (UFO's) using Tesla technology, is extremely classified. Financial support for this activity is profit; e.g., producing industrial diamonds in a more suitable outer Space environment is more profitable than on Earth. Carl

*The alien origin of UFO's is a hoax.


[ ]

Asunto: 
Outer Space Manufacturing
Autor: 
Bill Lyne
Fecha: 
Mar, 2004-06-22 12:12

The original impetus for outer space manufacturing (in 1975-76) was to take advantage of the space vacuum and the lack of gravity to perform certain manufacturing operations, such as the formation of certain alloys which would not form in earth's gravity environment. The sought-after alloys and other materials were so unusual and so technologically valuable as to be able to finance the space activity. I do not think that rocket technology is cost effective or reliable. Only UFO technology would make it feasible. These unusual alloys and materials have already been produced.


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Asunto: 
Tesla & UFO's simplified
Autor: 
carlzim
Fecha: 
Mar, 2004-06-22 17:37

http://home.flash.net/~manniac/ufonwo.htm

Flying Saucers & UFO's

Have you ever dreamed of owning you're own flying saucer? Would you
like to fly from here to Europe for FREE, in a half an hour, WITHOUT
TRAFFIC! ??
If you are like most people, (which you probably aren't considering
you are here at this site), you probably think your children might
see this technology some day or maybe your grandchildren, well let
me tell you right now, THIS TECHNOLOGY IS AVAILABLE NOW & IS BEING
KEPT FROM YOU!!
Do you believe aliens first brought us flying saucer technology in
1947 when they supposedly crashed at Roswell N.M.?
The TRUTH is that Nikola Tesla first developed the "Flying Saucer"
around 1910.
Tesla was responsible for many ingenious inventions including
Alternating Current, Laser Beams, Particle Beams, Radio, Television,
flourescent and neon lighting, Robotics, artificial intelligence and
helicopters.
THE POWERS-THAT-BE (Modern Day Illuminati) DO NOT
WANT THIS INFORMATION OUT. It would be the end of their
PETROLEUM MONOPOLY and their ability to sell oil and fossil fuels to
this country as well as all the YET-TO-BE-DEVELOPED third world
countries.
The Illuminati would like you to believe that flying saucers come
from ALIENS and that the Government is involved in covering this up.
The Illuminati would like you to believe that Roswell actually
happened. The belief in Aliens is the beginning of the formation of
a NEW ONE-WORLD RELIGION where the dictates of God from the days of
old are replaced by the will of Alien cultures communicating through
various "Channeled" sources.
There is plenty of evidence of flying saucers since the 1940's
HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT ONE SOLID THREAD OF EVIDENCE OF ALIENS ON THIS
PLANET !!
(Except in our Government 'A.K.A - Unregistered Foreign Agents')
The CIA, NSA and other British Connected Intelligence
Agencies are spending millions of dollars to Propagandize
the public to death regarding this issue. This is what you
would call "MIND CONTROL AT IT'S FINEST"
So, while we all have to drive around stuck in traffic and smog,
paying $$$$$ out the Kazoo for gas and oil, the Secret Fraternity of
Freemasons at the highest levels can fly around the planet for FREE
on free-energy.
Meanwhile, the dangerous elements of Tesla's technology are
currently being employed by the Military against US and other
countries. This is the height of NEW WORLD ORDER ATROCITIES. :
Microwave Melt (Sound Wave) weapons, Laser Beams Blindness Weapons,
Earthquake Manufacturing, Weather Control (For crop freezes and food
eradication), HAARP and much more.
At this Rate, the future children of the world might see the saucer
technology in another thousand years, if they aren't slaves working
on another planet for the Freemasons.
I know it may seem extremely far out there and paranoid to some of
you, but I believe it is a very large possibility.


[ ]

Asunto: 
Risky Position
Autor: 
Bill Lyne
Fecha: 
Mar, 2004-06-22 12:05

It is a risky proposition to state unequivocally that there are no earth colonies on other bodies in space. As early as 1975, I heard from a reliable source (article in Reason Magazine) that space colonization was already in progress by some Futurists, including Timothy Leary (whom as you may know was CIA-connected). This space activity was being conducted in the private sector. Mentioned was the German firm, for example, which manufactures modular rocket parts which have been used by several countries AND PRIVATE GROUPS to launch their own satellites. Of course the same magazine was taking care to conceal the real methods, by spreading the lies that UFOs do not exist, a lie which is easily disproved by overwhelming evidence. But for someone who is a typical public sucker who is controlled by media lies, there is no sense argueing with such a brick wall of ignorance.
There is only one caveat, that being only the possibility that electrodynamic UFO propulsion does not work in outer space...that it is dependent for its operation on our atmospheric gases. Considering the fantastic nature of this great discovery by Nikola Tesla (ca. 1893) and more complete development by him (ca. 1914), the theory of its operation as explained by him makes it highly unlikely that it will not work in outer space, even though he described in popular magazine articles in 1911-14 the technology as being "veritable ropes of air". This raises the possiblilty that he was referring to the "ropes of air" metaphorically, for an audience which had little understanding of science such as we have today, as his description of the technology in the 1890s was such that it relied upon ether carriers of momentum.
We know, or should know, that UFOs are a reality possessed by our government. I know a corporate person (identity concealed) who uses UFOs in surveying for minerals in the earth, both in flights over the earth and under the ocean, facilitated by laser devices which can find minerals deep under the earth. These UFOs are referred to as "ARVs" ("Autonomous Remote Vehicles"), which are completely robotic vehicles which are pre-programmed and sent out to do their work "autonomously" then return to the sender to deliver the desired data. This device was developed by the corporation which gave us GPS technology.
Only a fool believes that exclusively man-made UFOs don't exist. Only a fool believes that they are extraterrestrial. Only a fool would believe that with such technology operative for over ninety years, that it would not be used to establish colonies on other bodies in space near enough to earth, SUBJECT ONLY TO THE CAVEAT THAT THE TECHNOLOGY WORKS IN OUTER SPACE.


[ ]

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