In this mailing:
1. Russian Military Intel update: War in Iraq, April 6 (morning)
2. Russian Defence Ministry Intelligence Information Pops Up on the
Internet - From Izvestia
*********
Russian Military Intel update: War in Iraq, April 6 (morning)
06.04.2003 [19:01]
"All the claims made by aviation commander of the coalition, general
Michael Mosley, about '¡­Iraqi army, as an organized structure consisting
of large units, exists no longer¡­' are contrary to fact and, according to
analytics, are probably connected with severe pressure put on the military
command by American financial groups that desperately needed good news from
the US-Iraqi front by the end of the financial week. In fact, the
Republican Guards defending Baghdad have not lost even 5% of their
numerical strength and military equipment."

Subject: [liberation_news] Russian Intel update: April 6, Iraqi Baghdad
defense intact

In this mailing:
1. Russian Military Intel update: War in Iraq, April 6 (morning)
2. Russian Defence Ministry Intelligence Information Pops Up on the
Internet - From Izvestia
*********
Russian Military Intel update: War in Iraq, April 6 (morning)
06.04.2003 [19:01]
"All the claims made by aviation commander of the coalition, general
Michael Mosley, about '¡­Iraqi army, as an organized structure consisting
of large units, exists no longer¡­' are contrary to fact and, according to
analytics, are probably connected with severe pressure put on the military
command by American financial groups that desperately needed good news from
the US-Iraqi front by the end of the financial week. In fact, the
Republican Guards defending Baghdad have not lost even 5% of their
numerical strength and military equipment."

April 6th, Morning
Baghdad

By the morning of April 6th an uncertain and quickly changing situation has
developed. Coalition divisions are continuing to advance toward the city
outskirts. The 22nd and 15th expeditionary marine squadrons are trying to
break into the region of military airport ¡°Rashid¡± from south-east.
Iraqis are holding the line along the Diyala river and currently the
marines cannot capture beach-heads on the right bank.

A hard situation has formed near the international airport. The day before
yesterday the Iraqi minister of propaganda claimed that the coalition
forces in this region would have been eliminated by this morning, and the
Iraqi command ordered to storm the airport. At 10am it was attacked by 3
Republican Guards battalions enforced with militia troops. Americans
requested artillery and aviation support. The battle lasted for almost 6
hours. After several unsuccessful attacks Iraqis managed to drive Americans
back from the second runway to the airport building.

Currently the coalition forces control the building itself and the new
runway bordering it. During the day the foes had to increase their strength
and deploy reinforcements. By the evening up to 2 regular Iraqi brigades
and 2 thousand militiamen were fighting for the airport. Americans had to
use all available forces of the 3rd Mechanized Division and 101st Airborne
Division to repulse the attacks. Only assault aircraft and battle
helicopters made more than 300 operation flights to this region.

During the fight Iraqis lost up to 20 tanks, 10 APC, about 200 men killed
and up to 300 wounded. The American losses were up to 30 men killed, about
50 wounded, at least 4 tanks, 4 APC and 1 helicopter. But it is impossible
to obtain the exact data yet. By this hour there have been more than 20
flights for evacuation of killed and wounded coalition soldiers and the
command have requested ambulance aviation again.

The combat was so intense that commander of the 3rd Mechanized Division
general-major Bufford Blunt had to issue an order to organize a false
strike. Around 8am from Khan-Azad road junction an attack was organized in
order to demonstrate tank vanguards of a large subdivision advancing toward
Al-Daura from south. The group was able to reach the outskirts of the town
near the Avajridge village. After entering the village the group was met by
Republican Guards. In direct combat the group lost 2 tanks, 3 APC, 3 men
killed, up to 10 wounded and, after two hours of fighting, withdrew to the
main forces. Iraqis lost 4 tanks, 2 APC and up to 30 men killed.

By the evening the foes reduced their activity and were regrouping last
night. Americans are rapidly fortifying their defense positions and
deploying reinforcements to the airport region, increasing their forces at
Khan-Azad and Abu-Harraib. Iraqis are moving anti-armor divisions closer to
the city outskirts.

Despite the exchange of strikes there are no reasons to expect any serious
attempts to capture the city in the nearest future. By numerical strength
the coalition troops that have reached the city borders do not meet even
the minimal requirements for storming and heavy urban fights. Coalition
forces by Baghdad number up to 18-20 thousand men and can be enforced with
no more than 3-5 thousand men while the minimal force necessary to capture
a city like Baghdad equals from 80 to 100 thousand soldiers.

According to weather forecasts, in the coming day the weather may abruptly
change to the worse. The wind is expected to intensify, visibility may
reduce to 200-300 m.

All the claims made by aviation commander of the coalition, general Michael
Mosley, about ¡°¡­Iraqi army, as an organized structure consisting of large
units, exists no longer¡­¡± are contrary to fact and, according to
analytics, are probably connected with severe pressure put on the military
command by American financial groups that desperately needed good news from
the US-Iraqi front by the end of the financial week. In fact, the
Republican Guards defending Baghdad have not lost even 5% of their
numerical strength and military equipment. Most of those losses were due to
bombardments and not land combat. The total losses of Iraqi army since the
beginning of the war have not exceeded 5-8% of their defensive potential.
This means the main battles are still to be seen.

The situation in other sectors of the US-Iraqi front will be summarized
closer to this evening.

[ translated by Necroman ]

Ramzaj

***********
Russian Defence Ministry Intelligence Information Pops Up on the Internet
From Izvestia

"A strange new character, who publishes his materials on the war in Iraq
under the name 'Ramzaj', the pseudonym of the legendary Soviet intelligence
officer Richard Sorge, has appeared on the net. What is quite amazing, is
how accurately he describes events occurring in the Persian Gulf. He is
leaving world news agencies in the dust! It's not just a question of
accurate predictions and prognostications, the conviction is growing that
Ramzaj is passing along real intelligence information. According to
gazeta.ru, on March 19th, twenty-four hours before the start of ground
operations in Iraq, on one of those specialized Internet forums,
Iraqwar.ru, two very intriguing messages appeared.

One of them, entitled 'An Element of US Attack Plans Revealed' and the
second 'GRU reveals elements of US Attack Plans'. They described (with
geographic details) the general concept of the American-British invasion of
Iraq. In part, they pointed out that the attack on Basra would be
diversionary, its objective to pin down Iraqi formations concentrated
around the city, and that the main attack would be carried out via a deep
encirclement of Basra from the west via An-Nasiriya and El-Arma coming out
in the region of lake Hawr-Es-Savakiya, thus forming an outer frontline
ring around Basra. It was stated that; 'from El-Arma, a portion of the
force will develop attacks along the river Euphrates exiting in the area of
lake Habbaniya, followed by the seizure of the town of El-Habbaniya and the
establishment of a front to the south of Baghdad with partial encirclement
to the south-west.' This very detailed information appeared on the forum 12
hours before the start of ground operations in Iraq.

At 11:07 on the 20th March, in the very same forum, Ramzaj's next
communiqu¨¦ appeared under the headline "Operational Information." In it,
the results of the first attacks on Baghdad were described, together with
detailed clarifications of the situation of the coalition's attacks in
various specific directions. In particular, details were given of their
first losses; 'At 9:50, a helicopter of the 101st Airborne was lost in a
crash due to poor visibility. So far there is no information about losses.'
But remember, at that time, early on the 20th, world press agencies were
still carrying information about the first powerful attack on Baghdad and
packaged information about the movement of coalition troops.

Indirect confirmation of the coalition's first helicopter loss appeared on
the 20th of March at 16:16, seven hours after Ramzaj released it. Reuters,
relying on Pentagon sources, announced that early that morning, before the
start of the bombing and cruise missile attacks in the south of Iraq, a
coalition helicopter (possibly a MN-53) with a team of elite, special
forces on board had been 'involved in a crash.'They confirmed that the
helicopter crew together with the special forces unit had been picked up by
a rescue team sent to the site of the crash. It was only on the 21st of
March at 5:49 in the morning,by this time 24 hours after Ramzaj's
communiqu¨¦,that Reuters confirmed that the Pentagon had admitted the loss
of a US marine helicopter, a Boeing CN-46 Sea Knight. It was announced that
the helicopter had gone down in Kuwait with the loss of 11 men.

From then on it became obvious that Ramzaj was not the fantasy of some
half-mad, military tactics and strategy buff on the forum. Careful analysis
of the text of "Operational Information," in comparison with TV and wire
service agencies operating in Iraq, reveals that Ramzaj offers an account
very close the actual course of military activity. In practically every one
of his communiqu¨¦s there is concrete information which will only be
confirmed by the Pentagon and the media two or three days later.

But operational information on the development of the military action in
Iraq, it seems, is only a part of what Ramzaj knows. In addition to the
information obtained ahead of everyone else there is also information from
the secret services. The clearest example, confirmed in the article,
appears in "Operational Information" for the 25th of March 2003; "12:40,
Ramzaj; According to intelligence received, the Pentagon has taken a
decision to significantly strengthen its military forces in the region. In
the coming two weeks, up to 50,000 soldiers and officers and no fewer than
500 tanks taken from forces quartered in Germany and Albania will be
transferred there. By the end of April, no fewer than 120,000 troops and
1000 tanks will be transferred.' It was only the following day, the 26th of
March at 19:23 that the Reuters agency announced that the US was sending
additional forces to Iraq; "It was learned from military sources that, in
the next few days, a transfer of elements of the 4th marine division
together with other fully modernized units, totaling some 30,000 men, will
be carried out." An hour later George Bush made the official announcement
about strengthening the forces deployed in Iraq.

Gazeta.ru's analysis of Ramzaj's output in the period from the 19th to the
28th of March leaves no doubt that behind this information, appearing
regularly on the Internet, stands a representative of GRU GHQ MO Russia,
that wants, in this way, to exert a powerful influence on available
information about the war in Iraq.

Author:Ivan Atlantov
Source:Izvestia
Translation:Paul U. Provodnik